Gulf In Turmoil: Why Iran War Is A Shared Crisis For South Asia | Opinion

Forty-five years ago, in May 1981, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi visited the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at the invitation of UAE President Sheikh Zayed bin Mohammed. During their discussions, the two leaders recognised that the security and welfare of the Gulf region and of India were interlinked. Over the decades, as India and other South Asian countries have developed greater interests in the Gulf region, the concept that the security and welfare of the two regions are interdependent has grown stronger. It is this idea that is now profiled when the Gulf region is in turmoil because of the Iran war. India and other South Asian countries' vital interests have been adversely impacted by the war. They are all facing major challenges arising out of the war.

These six countries of the Arab Peninsula– Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Oman–host large expatriate populations from South Asian countries. Of these, the largest is from India, at between ninety lakhs and one crore. Pakistan and Bangladesh have more than fifty lakhs each, and there are lakhs of Nepalese and Sri Lankans. These people, including those from India, perform very significant functions in the economy of these countries. These stretch from professional, executive and managerial to semi-skilled to labour. It can be said that while the Gulf countries have expatriates from many other countries, including Arab and European, they cannot do without South Asians, especially Indians. Indians bring about unmatched skills and reliability, which is acknowledged by the leaders of these countries.

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The South Asian populations in these six countries are important for the economies of their home countries. They send back remittances, which contribute to the maintenance of macro economic stability of these countries. This is not vital in the case of India, but it is so for Pakistan, whose financial situation has been fragile. Bangladesh, which is going through a tough financial situation, also relies on remittances from the Gulf countries. In addition to macroeconomic stability, the remittances from the Gulf keeps is essential for lakhs of families. These families would have a dark future in the absence of these remittances.

The Gulf countries have been very significant for India’s energy security till now. They are even more so for Pakistan and other South Asian countries. India imports more than half of its crude oil and gas requirements from these countries, but it has diversified its imports of oil from other sources such as the US and European countries. These will be more expensive, but at least they will be available. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a problem for all South Asian countries as well as the rest of the world. The problem for Pakistan is that it gets oil from Saudi Arabia and the UAE on credit. It may not be able to get this from other countries, leading to greater macro-economic instability. Linked to hydrocarbons are fertilisers. Fertilisers are vital for the agriculture of all South Asian countries.

Gulf countries are important for India’s trade and investments, as for those of other South Asian countries. India’s exports to the Gulf countries are a significant part of its overall exports. That has been impacted by the Iran war. Dubai port is also important for re-exports to other countries such as Iran, Afghanistan and some African destinations too. The same is also largely true of other South Asian countries. The Gulf region is an important source of investments to many South Asian countries. This will all be affected. Besides, investments made by Indians and other South Asians will also go down in value as the Gulf countries may now have to confront new challenges emerging from a loss of confidence in them.

This demonstrates that what Indira Gandhi and Sheikh Zayed had thought about the Gulf region and India and South Asia has come true. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sheikh Zayed’s son and the current UAE President, Sheikh Mohammed, have built on the ideas of Indira Gandhi and Sheikh Zayed. Consequently, in the past decade, India-UAE ties have added new dimensions of cooperation. The two leaders also enjoy a robust and positive personal relationship.

All this shows that India and South Asian countries are in the same boat because of the Iran war. Had Pakistan not had such enmity towards India and pursued terrorism against it, and had Bangladesh also been more balanced towards India, there is little doubt that all South Asian leaders could have made a collective appeal to the US, Israel and Iran to pursue diplomacy and negotiations to end their differences. They have done so individually but not collectively.

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The main hurdle to a common South Asian voice is Pakistan, where there is deep hostility among its leaders and many sections of its population towards India. Modi tried his best in the first few years of his Prime Ministership to normalise relations with Pakistan, but its military sabotaged his efforts. Now Pakistan is going along with Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia to mediate between Iran and the US. Pakistan is willing to host the talks. The Foreign Ministers of the four countries met in Islamabad on March 29. Pakistan is putting its Islamic identity ahead of its South Asian one.

This is not surprising. However, it should be known that even though it has nuclear weapons, the leading Islamic states do not take it seriously because of its unstable politics and its weak economic situation. Pakistan now feels that it has an opportunity to get a greater profile in the Islamic world. This will not be. It will only be used.

(The author is a former diplomat.)