- By Kamakshi Bishnoi
- Mon, 13 Apr 2026 07:10 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
The Indian Meteorological Department on Monday announced that India is expected to witness below-average rainfall this coming southwest monsoon season, creating cause for concern for the agricultural industry.
The Meteorological Department has published its first seasonal review for the upcoming monsoons, with a follow-up forecast coming in May, along with detailed regional analysis later on when it becomes available.
All long-range predictions made by IMD can be classified into three categories based on how much of the southwest monsoon will occur during the predicted period.
The southwest monsoon generates approximately 75 per cent of India’s total annual precipitation and, as such, is integral to India’s agricultural economy.
The forecast indicates that total rainfall for India will be about 92 per cent of the LTA or long-term average total precipitation for India, with a +5 to -5 per cent error margin; it will be classified as below the long-term average if total precipitation is between 90 and 94 per cent of the LTA.
The first few months may have little impact on India’s agriculture, but concerns exist about the latter half of the southwest monsoon season.
“We are not expecting a significant impact of less rain in June-July, but the below rainfall during the second half is concerning, as El Nino is likely to peak after July," News 18 quoted M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
El Nino, which is a climate phenomenon characterised by above-average ocean temperatures, usually results in the monsoon rains being weaker and drought-like conditions occurring in India. Currently, El Nino is in weak La Nina conditions and should develop into neutral conditions by the end of July, at which point it is expected to evolve into an El Nino condition.
The IMD will provide its official forecast for the onset of the southwest monsoon around mid-May based on the current state of evolving weather patterns.